Does the flap of a butterfly???s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?
I always wondered where that came from???.. tonight I found out. For those of you who are impatient then you can click here.
I’m finally getting round to reading Nate Silver’s book “The Signal and the Noise“, got it in October before all the presidential election results and the eventual catapulting of Nate’s book.
So between the choice of reading the book or surviving the onslaught of Richard Hammond’s Secret Service, Splash (why? please someone tell me why!) and Take Me Out???.. well you can see why I read the book.
How you round numbers becomes a very important game if you predict the weather, something I’d never considered until yer man picked a lass out of thirty on the basis of looks, make up, lack of fashion sense. Is it me? Or am I getting too old? Back to the numbers???..
Edward Lorenz published a paper in 1963 called “Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow“
“In 1961, Lorenz was using a numerical computer model to rerun a weather prediction, when, as a shortcut on a number in the sequence, he entered the decimal 0.506 instead of entering the full 0.506127. The result was a completely different weather scenario.”
Here the truncating or rounding of numbers becomes very important. Round too much and the outcome is totally different. Once we get on the quantum physics well I’m lost. I could watch Splash though???..
2 responses to “Careful rounding the numbers now???.”
[…] sell within the blink of an eye there’s little you can do. Add to that the potential for a Lorenz moment and anything could have happened. And like previous episodes of spiralling algos the only thing […]
[…] weather analytics software, prediction algorithms where 0.00005 positive or negative can have an effect on weather prediction outcomes. I believe there’s an easier pattern to pick up. […]